Duterte wins Philippine presidential election: preliminary results

Davao city mayor Rodrigo Duterte has won the 2016 Philippine presidential election, according to an unofficial and partial tally of votes cast as of 2:00 a.m. Tuesday. Based on 87 percent of valid ballots, Duterte pocketed 14,499,396 votes, followed by Manuel Roxas at 8,680,203 votes, the statistics from partial and unofficial Comelec Transparency server showed. Even if the rest of the uncounted valid votes all went to Roxas, he would not be able to turn the tide. "Duterte's victory excites me and inspires optimism because he is a strong-willed leader with outstanding track record as moyor of Davao city," said Wilson Lee Flores, a columnist and analyst in political science. Flores emphasized that Duterte is the first Filipino president-elect from economically-neglected, resource-rich and rebel-infested Mindanao region of southern Philippines. "He can help the region more," he said. He added that he also expects Duterte to address the now bad peace and order situation, the huge rich-poor gap, and the rural development and infrastructure needs of the country. Grace Poe, ranking the third in vote counting, had already conceded to Duterte earlier in a press conference in Quezon city, Manila. Five candidates contested in the election for the presidency to succeed Benigno Aquino III, whose six-year term ends on June 30. Duterte has been leading most of the opinion polls since April. Some 33 percent of the voters said they would vote for Duterte in the final pre-election survey conducted by Social Weather Station. The country's renowned polling body carried out the survey from May 1 to 3 through face-to-face interviews with 4,500 validated voters nationwide with a sampling error margin of 1 point. The 71-year-old mayor is known to have made Davao one of the safest cities in the Philippines through tough regulations and iron-fist approach in crime fighting. During the presidential campaign period, he vowed to wipe out corruption, drugs and criminality in three to six months if he wins the election. His aggressive behavior and offensive language won him a lot of supporters, but aroused concerns and controversy as well. Candidate Grace Poe held a press conference in Quezon city, Manila at around 00:05 a.m. Tuesday, conceding to Duterte. Expressed her gratitude to her supporters, Poe said that she and her team had never lost faith. The female candidate said she had tried her best during the campaign period. Poe also said she would serve as senator for three more years, fighting for rule of law and democracy as she always did. Some 55 million Filipinos were registered to vote and the voter turnout reached a record high of 81.62 percent, according to the Commission of Elections. The candidate who gets the most votes wins the election.

Duterte wins Philippine presidential election: preliminary results

Davao city mayor Rodrigo Duterte has won the 2016 Philippine presidential election, according to an unofficial and partial tally of votes cast as of 2:00 a.m. Tuesday. Based on 87 percent of valid ballots, Duterte pocketed 14,499,396 votes, followed by Manuel Roxas at 8,680,203 votes, the statistics from partial and unofficial Comelec Transparency server showed. Even if the rest of the uncounted valid votes all went to Roxas, he would not be able to turn the tide. "Duterte's victory excites me and inspires optimism because he is a strong-willed leader with outstanding track record as moyor of Davao city," said Wilson Lee Flores, a columnist and analyst in political science. Flores emphasized that Duterte is the first Filipino president-elect from economically-neglected, resource-rich and rebel-infested Mindanao region of southern Philippines. "He can help the region more," he said. He added that he also expects Duterte to address the now bad peace and order situation, the huge rich-poor gap, and the rural development and infrastructure needs of the country. Grace Poe, ranking the third in vote counting, had already conceded to Duterte earlier in a press conference in Quezon city, Manila. Five candidates contested in the election for the presidency to succeed Benigno Aquino III, whose six-year term ends on June 30. Duterte has been leading most of the opinion polls since April. Some 33 percent of the voters said they would vote for Duterte in the final pre-election survey conducted by Social Weather Station. The country's renowned polling body carried out the survey from May 1 to 3 through face-to-face interviews with 4,500 validated voters nationwide with a sampling error margin of 1 point. The 71-year-old mayor is known to have made Davao one of the safest cities in the Philippines through tough regulations and iron-fist approach in crime fighting. During the presidential campaign period, he vowed to wipe out corruption, drugs and criminality in three to six months if he wins the election. His aggressive behavior and offensive language won him a lot of supporters, but aroused concerns and controversy as well. Candidate Grace Poe held a press conference in Quezon city, Manila at around 00:05 a.m. Tuesday, conceding to Duterte. Expressed her gratitude to her supporters, Poe said that she and her team had never lost faith. The female candidate said she had tried her best during the campaign period. Poe also said she would serve as senator for three more years, fighting for rule of law and democracy as she always did. Some 55 million Filipinos were registered to vote and the voter turnout reached a record high of 81.62 percent, according to the Commission of Elections. The candidate who gets the most votes wins the election.

Commodity futures hit by concerns, weak demand

China's commodities futures plunged on Monday, with steel and iron ore futures falling by 6 percent, as worries about the country's economic outlook and weak demand further intensified. Analysts also said there was no basis for the previous increases in commodity prices, and that the fall in prices will continue. The most-traded steel rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell around 6 percent to 2,175 yuan ($334.30) a ton on Monday, the lowest level since April 7. A similar trend was seen on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) on Monday. The September iron ore futures contract on the exchange plunged by the daily maximum of 6 percent to 388 yuan a ton by close of trading. Coking coal, another major commodity, fell 5.76 percent to 654 yuan a ton on Monday. Aluminum and copper on the SHFE both shed over 2 percent on Monday, while asphalt and nickel dropped by more than 3 percent. "There is no basis for commodity prices to rise," said Qiu Yanying, partner and chief strategist at VStone Asset Management Co. "The previous jump in prices was largely caused by speculative activity, and prices are bound to fall back to the original level," Qiu told the Global Times on Monday. Steel futures prices have seen a cumulative increase of around 47 percent so far this year as of April 25, National Business Daily reported, noting that iron ore futures also surged by 48 percent this year, hitting a 15-month high. Multiple reasons for the plunge "The recent launch of aggressive regulatory policies also helped cool the market by increasing the cost of speculation," Jiang Shu, chief analyst at Shandong Gold Group in Shanghai, told the Global Times on Monday. In recent weeks, China's commodity exchanges launched a series of measures, including raising the minimum trading margin, to tackle signs of overheating transactions. A spokesman for DCE said on Monday that the exchange will continue to strengthen market monitoring and will take measures to restrain excessive speculation, such as raising transaction fees for frequent and short-term trading, according to a post on DCE's website on Monday. The policies appear to have had an effect. Last week, coke, coking coal and rebar futures all saw their largest weekly decline on record, plunging 11.11 percent, 10.21 percent and 9.46 percent, respectively. But in Jiang's view, the most important reason for Monday's plunge is concerns about China's economy. "Unlike oil, the performance of ferrous metals is mainly based on the domestic economy rather than international market conditions," Jiang said, adding that a report by People's Daily on Monday added to investors' fears about the economy. China's economic trend will be "L-shaped," and cannot be U-shaped, and certainly not V-shaped, the People's Daily report said, citing an "authoritative figure." The source also said that the Chinese government will continue cutting capacity and inventories, and will not use excessive investment and credit expansion to stimulate the economy. "This shows the central government's view of the economy, and that slower GDP growth [will persist] for quite some time," Jiang said, noting that demand will also remain weak. Many analysts attributed the previous jump in trading volumes and prices of China's commodities to a massive influx of speculative funds. But according to Jiang, the plunge on Monday was not solely due to an outflow of speculative funds from the market. "Some funds did leave the market to take profits, but there were also some new funds flowing into the market for bargain-hunting," Jiang said. As for future prices, Qiu from VStone said there will be a prolonged drop in steel and iron ore prices in the long term, due to the sluggish demand and tighter regulations. "But in the short term, there will still be some volatility since trading behavior is easily affected by various factors such as changes in transaction fees," Qiu said.

Debt risks may trigger crisis, warns official

China needs to reduce its dependence on high leverage or debt and turn away from credit-driven growth to avoid a financial crisis, the official People's Daily quoted an "authoritative" source on Monday as saying. In a recent interview with an unnamed "authoritative person" about the nation's economic outlook, People's Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party of China, said on Monday that risks in dealing with issues such as the housing market bubble, overcapacity, nonperforming debt and illegal fundraising have raised concerns in the midst of the structural transformation in China. "Trees can't grow to the sky. High leverage will bring high risks, which could trigger systematic risks and weigh on the country's GDP growth, destroying the savings of the public," the person was quoted as saying in the newspaper. The authoritative person reports to senior officials at the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs or the National Development and Reform Commission, the top planning body, who has also taken part in drawing up policies, The Beijing News said on Monday. Reducing the debt-to-equity ratio is a challenging task, especially in sectors such as housing, which has been heavily relying on leveraged investments, and emerging industries involving the use of the Internet, said Tian Yun, director of the China Society of Macroeconomics Research Center. "For example, recent data shows that the growth rate of M1, or liquid components of the money supply like cash and assets, has been largely higher than that of M2 - which includes savings and time deposits - since November 2015, which implies that a large amount of an individual's savings have gone into money management products, as interest rates remained low," Tian told the Global Times on Monday. The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rose 13.4 percent to 144.62 trillion yuan ($35.86 trillion) at the end of March compared to the same period last year, while M1 rose 22.1 percent to 41.16 trillion yuan, the Xinhua News Agency reported, citing data released by the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank. Tian noted that there is also a link between soaring leveraged investments in real estate and the emerging financing platform, as some money management products are actually part of illegal fundraising activities, and have become the financial channels for some real estate projects. There is no need to boost economic growth through increasing leverage, and policies for the stock market, the foreign exchange market and the housing market should be market-driven, People's Daily emphasized. Mortgage loan risks Strong growth in new lending to China's residential mortgage sector brings additional credit risks, Fitch Ratings said in a research note sent to the Global Times on Monday. New mortgages worth 2.2 trillion yuan accounted for 45 percent of the increase in total loans at 14 rated Chinese banks in 2015, as weaker economic conditions suppressed demand for other types of lending, Fitch noted. However, easier access to mortgage loans, helped by more favorable layaway terms and an easing of home purchase restrictions in some cities, appear to have fueled a rise in real estate prices in first- and second-tier cities across China. "Major economic indicators showed signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2016, which has been mainly helped by the booming housing market," said Liu Xuezhi, a macroeconomist at Bank of Communications. Compared to the rising non-performing loans (NPLs) in the corporate sector, those in the mortgage sector are still "under control," Liu told the Global Times on Monday. "However, potential risks should also be taken into account, as in second- and third-tier cities, as real estate developers would face financial trouble when the demand remains weak," he said. Economists said they also expect the country's monetary policy to become more neutral, which is also in line with the report which said "loosening monetary policy to boost economic growth should be totally abandoned." Avoiding a downturn The nation's economic growth will not be "U-shaped" nor "V-shaped" but "L-shaped," the person was quoted in the newspaper as saying. An L-shaped recession describes a sharp drop in economic growth followed by a prolonged period of lower-level growth or even a contraction, which describes Japan's low and negative growth since the Japanese assets bubble burst in the 1990s, Robert Koepp, director of the Economist Corporate Network, a business advisory service within The Economist Group, told the Global Times on Monday. "Unfortunately, the severe leverage of local government debt in China and recent evidence of increased borrowing points to China facing a similar possible outcome, although an outright contraction is less likely," Koepp said. He noted that to avoid this kind of outcome requires dedicated efforts at reform, including an overhaul of the tax system so local governments do not rely on property sales to finance their social spending, and well-regulated and transparent capital markets for debt and equity instruments also need to be developed.

Death toll rises to 35 in E China landslide

The death toll has risen to 35 with one person still missing following a landslide in Taining County in east China's Fujian Province on Sunday, sources with Taining County authorities confirmed Tuesday afternoon. The landslide occurred at about 5 am on Sunday in Taining County, when about 100,000 cubic meters of mud and rocks flowed downhill, burying a temporary shed at a hydropower station construction site and damaging its offices. Rescue work is still under way.