2015年4月15日星期三

Q1 GDP weakest in 6 years



China's pro-growth policies such as the "One Belt, One Road" initiative will help the country meet its full-year growth target, experts said Wednesday, after economic growth in the first quarter slowed to its lowest level since the global financial crisis.

The country's first quarter GDP rose 7.0 percent from a year earlier, the slowest quarterly growth since the first quarter of 2009, but remains in line with the central government's full-year target of around 7.0 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Wednesday.

"The Chinese economy was generally steady in the first quarter despite a slowdown in economic growth, because employment, consumer prices and market expectations are basically stable," Sheng Laiyun, an NBS spokesperson, told a press conference in Beijing.

Sheng said the slowdown is within expectations as the Chinese government had mentioned difficulties and downward pressure on the economy this year in its work report. He attributed the downward pressure to sluggish global economic recovery and the ongoing domestic structural reforms.

"The slowdown was largely caused by slower growth in the property sector," Liu Ligang, chief China economist at ANZ Banking Group, wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

Investment in China's property sector rose 8.5 percent from a year earlier, down from a 16.8 percent increase in the first quarter of 2014, according to the NBS.

"This year's first quarter data is in line with our expectations, but the economy is facing downward pressure as exports and power generation figures in March fell below market expectations," Zhou Jingtong, a senior analyst with Bank of China, told the Global Times Wednesday.

China's exports contracted by 15 percent in March from a year earlier. The electricity output fell by 3.7 percent in March, the lowest level in nearly five years, according to the NBS.

Zhou expects the central bank to further ease its monetary policy by cutting the banks' reserve requirement ratio requirement in the future.

Dong Dengxin, a finance professor at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the Global Times Wednesday there is no need to unnecessarily worry about the economic slowdown, as the Chinese economy is in transition from a pure growth pattern to one of quality-based growth with temporary pains such as eliminating excess capacity.

Sheng said the Chinese economy's new growth engine is emerging. "Industrial output of new-energy cars and robots surged by more than 50 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, much faster than traditional industries," he added.

Experts expect economic growth to pick up during the rest of the year.

"China is very likely to achieve the annual economic target for the year, as a batch of pro-growth policies will help stabilize the economy in succeeding quarters," Ding Yifan, deputy director of the Institute of World Development at the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the Global Times Wednesday.

With the implementation of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative, investment in China's central and western regions will be accelerated, and exports will also benefit from the initiative, Ding said.

ANZ's Liu noted that there are already some initial signs of recovery after the authorities launched a new round of policies since late February. These included a recent rise in property sales and new loans.

China has rolled out a series of measures that sent positive signals to the property market in the past months, including an interest rate cut, a tax exemption for second-hand home transactions and the easing of mortgage rules for second-home buyers.

"It is still too early to conclude that China's property market has recovered, and we need to carefully monitor data in the next few months," Lian Ping, chief economist with the Bank of Communications, told the Global Times Wednesday.

"If property sales continue to rebound, it will help boost real estate investments in the second half of the year," Lian said.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose by around 15 percent in the first quarter and hit a seven-year high despite an economic slowdown.

Sheng said Wednesday that the stock market's long-term performance is strongly linked to economic fundamentals, while the market dictates its short-term performance.

"The surge in the stock market defies economic fundamentals and is mainly driven by excessive liquidity, and investors should be wary of potential risks," said Dong.

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