Cross-Straits ties uncertain as KMT seeks 2016 candidate

Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party is struggling to find a promising "presidential" candidate for the forthcoming 2016 elections after its party chief vowed to stand by his pledge not to run.

Analysts believe the KMT politicians' reluctance to run will deepen the disintegration within the party and give rise to growing uncertainty about the future of cross-Straits relations.

Eric Chu Li-luan, KMT chairman, announced Saturday that he will not be running for "president," leaving KMT without a viable candidate against opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen.

Chu made the pledge not to run in June last year when he was running for reelection as New Taipei city mayor.

He succeeded Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou as chairman in January after the party suffered a stunning defeat in the island's local "nine-in-one elections" in December 2014, winning only six of 22 seats for city and county heads. The elections are seen as a barometer for 2016 vote on the regional leadership election.

"I have to be honest and credible," Chu said, adding that his most important goal is to unite the party so it can get "back on its feet."

Chu's comments came after Vice Chairman Wu Den-yih and head of Taiwan's legislative body Wang Jin-pyng both indicated that they would not run for the island's leader.

"Given the crushing defeat in the nine-in-one elections, those three candidates are worried about their chances to win the election, which will tarnish their own image and have an adverse impact on their future political life," Chiu Yi, former KMT legislator, told the Global Times.

However, Chu dismissed criticism that he was not running because he feared defeat, and said he would step down as KMT chairman next year regardless of the election outcome.

"As KMT chairman, Chu is responsible to find the most suitable candidate. If that fails, he himself has decent qualities and should not dodge responsibility," Ma was quoted as saying by the Central News Agency on Saturday.

Chu's announcement dealt another blow to the faltering confidence in the KMT.

Wang Jianming, a research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that the KMT would be much less united and infighting would increase within the party when its leader withdraws.

"Their reluctance will only bolster the morale in the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)," Chiu said.

In February, DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen filed her candidacy in the party primary for the 2016 leadership election.

A poll conducted by Taiwan Indicators Survey Research showed on Thursday that 40 percent of 1,004 respondents said they would vote for Tsai while 28 percent for Wang Jin-pyng, with the rest choosing to abstain or refusing to comment. Even if the KMT joins hands with the People First Party (PFP) to nominate PFP chairman James Soong Chu-yu as their candidate, Tsai would still have 45.8 percent support, 13.5 percentage points more than Soong, the survey showed.

"If the DPP, which opposes the 1992 Consensus, wins the election, cross-Straits relations will most likely be strained," Wang warned.

The 1992 Consensus refers to the "One China Principle" recognized by both the Chinese mainland and Taiwan after a meeting in 1992.

"There will be less official exchanges. The economic and trade links will also be affected," Chiu added.

Ma must step down in May 2016 after serving the maximum two terms.

Three KMT members filed their candidacy before the Saturday deadline. These are the deputy head of the Taiwan "legislature" Hung Hsiu-chu, former health "minister" Yaung Chih-liang and chief secretary of Dayuan township in Taoyuan county Huang Po-shou. However, none of the candidates is prominent enough to compete with the DPP chairwoman and their chances of winning are slim, analysts said.