Reshuffle shadows Myanmar elections

On Wednesday night, Myanmese security forces besieged the headquarters of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP); the following day the USDP announced that the party's Central Executive Committee would be restructured, with chairman Thura U Shwe Mann and general secretary Maung Maung Thein being removed from their current posts. Their replacements, new chairman Htay Oo and new general secretary Tin Naing Thein, are trusted followers of the de facto leader of the USDP, the incumbent Myanmese president, U Thein Sein. The official statement by the USDP said this was an "internal party matter," not a "coup," but it remains arguably the most notable political event since the Myanmese junta handed over power to the civilian government in 2011. The removal of Shwe Mann, whose troubled relationship with the military challenged their ability to retain power in the upcoming general election, makes the internal conflicts within the ruling party clear. The event raises questions about the direction of the country's political reform. November's election will be the most democratic one to be held in the country for decades. But the political situation is growing intense as the poll day approaches, and the fact that Shwe Mann's removal happened one day before the deadline for candidate registration is not a coincidence. Although both Thein Sein and Shwe Mann were generals in the military and worked as partners after entering politics, the pair haven't seen eye-to-eye for a long time, with Shwe Mann's current stance leaving him closer to opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi than the military on many major issues. Even more problematically, as a parliamentary speaker, he enabled the advancement of the constitutional amendments that were necessary to enable Suu Kyi to run for presidency. If the constitution continues to be revised in this direction, it will be a huge setback for the military; consequently, Shwe Mann's position as the main hopeful in the election was of huge concern to them. Shwe Mann has also butted heads with Thein Sein directly, trying to reduce his influence over the USDP's candidates for the general election by refusing to enlist a number of ex-military officers loyal to the president. For his part, Maung Maung Thein announced to media that Thein Sein wouldn't run for another term this year, a decision which has never been publicly confirmed by Thein Sein himself. With Shwe Mann's actions constituting such a major threat to the military, Thein Sein has had no choice but to push political fighting out of the back rooms and into the spotlight, using his military's power to deprive Shwe Mann of his presidential candidacy and defend its vested interests. Although the Myanmese junta changed their military uniforms for political suits before the 2010 election and started to conduct a series of democratic reforms, their recent actions show how strongly the military still affects the entire political system. Thein Sein's five-year presidential term is an experimental period for Myanmar and the placing of political reform ahead of economic reform shows his desire to cater to the democratic demands of the international community. But whether this pattern of reform is stable is a big concern. Even if the Myanmese election is held as scheduled, the newly elected president will have the task of overseeing a country still dominated by the military, and any attempt to weaken that dominance will most likely result in another coup - and, potentially, a tragic return to the days of the early 1990s. The "personnel change" shows the USDP and the military's anxiety for internal unity. But such strong actions will probably deepen Myanmar's domestic rifts and jeopardize the legitimacy of the election. In this scenario, Myanmar's democratic reform will struggle to secure any solid progress. Myanmar has many unstable and divided political forces, making it extremely hard to re-forge the country into a high-quality democracy. If these forces cannot agree to engage in proper dialogue, then we will see conflicts, confrontations and crises without end. It remains uncertain what the result of the election will be; it is to be hoped that it will help push forward the process of democratic reform in Myanmar. But Wednesday's incident shows that the military and the USDP will do everything they can to stop the opposition from winning the election.