News Analysis: Turkish downing of Russian warplane in Syria aims to draw redlines for Moscow

The Turkish downing of a Russian warplane aims to send a message to Moscow that there are red lines Ankara cannot tolerate to be violated, analysts say. The Turkish air force said its warplanes shot down a Russian war jet near the Syrian-Turkish borders on Tuesday morning, claiming the Russian aircraft violated the Turkish airspace, a statement totally denied by Moscow, whose officials said the Russian warplane was inside the Syrian airspace when it was shot down. Analysts in Damascus said the downing of the Russian warplane has more under the rug than what was said in the official statements. Whether Russia violated Turkey's airspace or not, Ankara has attempted, by the plane downing, to draw redlines for Moscow, analysts say. Those redlines are the Turkmen rebels, Turkey's favorite, which the Russian air force has recently been pounding in the northern countryside of Syria's Latakia province, and its plan to impose a "safe zone" on the Syrian side of the Syrian-Turkish borders, Osama Danura, a political analyst, told Xinhua. Syrian Turkmen are ethnic Turks who have lived in several Syrian areas since the 11th century. Their population is concentrated in the north of Syria, more specifically in the Turkmen Mountain in the northern countryside of Latakia near the Turkish borders and in other areas in several provinces. This ethnic group enjoys close ties with Turkey, due to the historical connects and the support the Turkish government has provided for them during the nearly five-year-old conflict in Syria. Long denied freedoms related to their ethnic belongingness by the Syrian authorities, the Turkmen were quick to rise against the government when the crisis began in Syria in 2011. Reports said that thousands of Turkmen were trained by Turkey, and formed several rebel groups, including groups in the Turkmen Mountain in Latakia. The Turkmen rebels have recently re-appeared on the surface, starting making territorial gains against the Islamic State (IS) militant group under the cover of the US and Turkish warplanes in northern Syria. Syrian analysts say the aim of Turkey is to use the Turkmen to clear areas from the IS on the Syrian side of the Syrian-Turkish borders as part of its long-divulged plan to create a "safe zone" in northern Syria. Russian airstrikes and the Syrian army have been advancing in the northern countryside of Latakia with the aim of capturing the Turkmen Mountain, something Turkey didn't seem to be pleased with. Four days ago, Turkey threatened "serious consequences" if Russia did not stop bombing Turkmen villages in north Syria. "It was stressed that the Russian side's actions were not a fight against terror, but they bombed civilian Turkmen villages and this could lead to serious consequences," Turkish Foreign Ministry said. Ankara had further submitted a letter to the presidency of the UN Security Council, asking the 15-member body to take action to prevent the targeting of the Turkmen in Syria by the Russian air forces and the land offensive by the Syrian army backed by the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah group. "It seems like one of the Turkish aims behind backing the Turkmen is draw the borders of the buffer zone Ankara is planning to create in order to turn it into camps for the Syrian refugees and could later be announced as a no fly zone," Danura, the analyst said. "If the Turkish army or authorities were trying to draw redlines to the Russian warplanes in the Syrian airspace, I would say this would never work and if the Turks want to draw new lines for their hoped-for buffer zone in northern Syria and to protect the rebels, which they support, between the town of Jarablus and the town of Azzaz in northern Syria, I would also say they will not succeed," Danura said. He continued that as long as there is a clear Syrian borderline and airspace, the Turkish air force "cannot impose a no fly zone especially for an air force like the Russian one, which is more superior to the Turkish." Mahdi Dakhlalah, another Syrian political researcher, deemed the incident as is a "dangerous precedent", noting that the downing of the Russian warplane is the "first confrontation between a NATO member country, Turkey, and Russia." "It seems that it wasn't an accident but an intentional attempt by Turkey to lift the morale of the Turkey-backed rebels in Syria. Of course, this stress that Turkey is still determined to support the rebels especially after the Syrian army managed to make progress in Aleppo province near Turkey," he said, adding that Turkey is still insisting on creating a buffer zone in northern Syria and there are no indication so far that Turkey has let go of this idea." The incident has sparked the ire of the Russian government, whose leader, Vladimir Putin, said the jet's downing was a "stab in the back," adding that the incident would have "serious consequences for Russia's relationship with Turkey." It "represents a stab in the back by the terrorists' accomplices. I can't describe what has happened today in any other way. Our plane was downed over Syrian territory by an air-to-air missile from a Turkish F-16 jet," he said. Moreover, Russia claimed that the radar of the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia showed the attacking Turkish planes violating the Syrian airspace, before shooting down the Russian warplane. Local media said Russia will deploy the cruiser, Moskva, off the Latakia coast, citing Russia's lieutenant general, Sergey Rudskoy, as a warning that "every target posing a potential threat will be destroyed." Sharif Shehadeh, a Syrian lawmaker, told Xinhua that he thinks "the Russian response will be decisive after the Russian Defense Ministry will discuss the repercussions of the incident." "The Russian response will be decisive, and probably not militarily, but Turkey understands that the Russians will respond," he said.