No immediate copycat moves expected: observers

The final ruling of an international tribunal on territorial disputes between China and the Philippines, which favored the latter, may encourage other claimants to consider international arbitration or at least seek greater interference in the South China Sea from outside powers, observers warned on Tuesday. However, because of each claimant country's unique political and economical interests, coupled with the need to strike a delicate balance between powers like China and the US, it will be hard for these countries to move toward challenging China any time soon, observers said. "China must be prepared to reduce the fallout of the arbitration case with other claimant countries," Gu Xiaosong, an expert on Southeast Asian studies at the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Tuesday. Scholars agreed that among the other claimant countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei, Vietnam will most likely challenge China's maritime territories. "Vietnam occupies the biggest number of islands or islets in the South China Sea and has the biggest area of overlapping maritime claims with China," Gu said. "With strong nationalistic sentiment, Vietnam is unlikely to back off on its claims," Gu noted. Ei Sun Oh, principal adviser of Malaysia-based think tank Pacific Research Center, also said he does not rule out the possibility of Vietnam seeking a similar arbitration, emboldened by the favorable ruling the Philippines received. In a July 1 comment on the arbitration court's decision to deliver its final ruling, the Vietnamese foreign ministry said it was closely watching the case and expects a "just and objective" decision. It stressed that resolving the maritime disputes is "in accordance with international law," and it supports the "strict implementation of the 1982 UNCLOS." The Philippines filed an arbitration case under UNCLOS in January 2013. But China insists the court has no jurisdiction over the case and refuses to participate. Oh said the tribunal decision that turned down the legal basis of China's nine-dash line, which marks its sea borders in the south, will have a bearing on the other claimant countries' sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, most of which intersect with the nine-dash line coverage. "Of course, the criteria used by the court in determining the status of those maritime features may also be applied to those countries' claimed South China Sea maritime features," he said. What next? However, observers believe the claimants will not take immediate action after the Philippine case, citing various considerations. Indonesia is not likely to challenge China since it is the "big brother" of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and will consider preserving relations between China and the ASEAN a priority, said Gu, adding that China has said it has no objection to Indonesia's sovereignty over the Natuna Islands. Malaysia will value its overall ties with China, being China's largest trading partner in Southeast Asia, experts said. "Although Vietnam hopes it could use the influence of the US to gain its own territorial interests in the South China Sea, it does not want to lose its long-term political and economic cooperation with China," Gu said. "The nature of Sino-Vietnamese relations is such that, due to similar ideologies, they succeed in patching up their differences, at least temporarily, through party-to-party channels," said Oh. Pan Jin'e, a research fellow of Vietnamese studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the tribunal's decision favoring the Philippines may not necessarily be a good thing for Vietnam, as Vietnam also has disputes with the Philippines over some islets. The bigger threat to China, analysts said, is that regional countries may allow the greater presence of outside powers. "If the countries' perception of China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea does not subside, they are likely to be open to or even encourage the participation of powerful extra-regional countries, such as the US, Japan and India, to provide what they perceive as a 'balance' against China's weight," said Oh.