Plate policy not enough to curb Delhi’s smog

Ranked one of the world's most polluted cities by the World Health Organization (WHO), New Delhi, the Indian capital, is now literally in battle mode against air pollution. Pressure from local residents, mainly the middle class, compounded by extensive coverage by the media on the health risks posed by the menace, has forced the local government led by the Aam Aadmi Party to introduce a slew of measures to combat vehicular pollution in the city. The odd-even formula aims to keep car owners with odd-numbered license plates off the roads on alternate days, and those with even-numbered plates on the next. The 15-day experimental scheme was enforced on the New Year's Day between 8 am and 8 pm. Till now, the verdict on the efficacy and sustainability of the policy is sharply divided. When the local government came up with the policy, a significant section of the city's residents hailed the move and vowed to make it a success. However, as days pass the picture is getting clearer. After all, the same policy has been tried and tested in many cities including Beijing, Bogotá, Mexico City and Paris. After the initial enthusiasm, it fizzles out as citizens find means of circumventing the rule - such as buying two cars with number plates ending with odd and even numbers each. "Public inconvenience" has been the most-quoted reason for disenchantment with the policy. The Delhi High Court also heard a Public Interest Litigation case on this account and ordered the local government to provide more data to prove a reduction of pollution levels. Ironically, the city saw one of its worst air pollution days on day four of the program. The fact of the matter is that less than 10 percent of vehicular pollution is caused by four-wheelers. By exempting two-wheelers as well as commercial vehicles bearing yellow number plates, including CNG-run taxis, three-wheeler and four-wheeler tempos, autos and taxis, which constitute the majority of automobiles on the city's roads, the policy is essentially diluted. According to a 2013 Indian Institute of Technology (Kanpur) study, the major cause of PM 2.5 levels is road dust (38 percent), followed by vehicles (20 percent) and industry (11 percent). Furthermore, the city's public transport infrastructure is not well-equipped to handle the added pressure due to the odd-even policy. It caters to only 17-20 percent of traffic. Between 2001 and 2014, there has been a spurt of 140 percent in private cars and jeeps in per capita terms. This has been accompanied by a drastic reduction in the number of buses - from 60,000 in 2010 to 40,000 in 2014. Shockingly, the much-celebrated Delhi metro caters to only 5 percent of people and has had negligible impact on private vehicle ownership in the city. A minority have chosen cycling over congested public transport, but again without proper infrastructure such as cycling paths and negative incentives such as extra registration taxes, congestion charges or a vehicle quota system for private vehicles, it will be difficult to bring down pollution levels. Without spreading awareness and instilling behavioral change, like the choice of public transportation over private car ownership, among the city's residents too, these measures are likely to crumble shortly. The government has announced expansion of the public transport system. It has also provided a deadline of January 1, 2017 for implementing Euro-VI emission norms (requiring five times cleaner fuel than now); set the target date of April 1, 2016 for vacuum cleaning dust from the roads; and impose restrictions on the movement of goods trucks on the city's roads. All these measures are well-intentioned just as the odd-even scheme, but implementation would be an arduous task. Delhi is far from reducing its pollution levels. However, the government is keen on tackling it through various experiments at present. The government needs to continuously monitor the situation and enforce mechanisms accordingly. While the odd-even policy may not bear fruit initially, if it is supplemented by other large-scale, radical systemic changes, positive change could happen. The author is a project associate, Manipal Advanced Research Group (MARG), Manipal University, India.